According to a new report from Asian business publication Nikkei Asian Review, the iPhone X will only ship 20 million units inside 2017 following ongoing supply issues with Apple's manufacturing.
Previously, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo had said he expected supply shortages to cause Apple to fail to meet demand until 2018, with sources speaking to the WSJ supporting these claims. Kuo additionally said he expected 40-50 million pre-orders for the iPhone X, but that Apple would need around 30-35 million to meet demand inside 2017 alone; he added that Apple could possible ship 25-30 million but would still fall short of demand.
With the report from Nikkei, it appears even Kuo's predictions could be somewhat generous.
The report indicates that Apple's supply problems started quite a while back and are now starting to clear, but by this stage it has already had a substantial impact on how many units are out there, or can be expected to be produced shortly. OLED display issues were originally a problem, followed by the TrueDepth camera.
The report says that with these issues resolved, Apple's production is creating new iPhone X handsets at a rate of 10 million per month. But, with the official release date in only a matter of days, with shipping to stores taking time, and with the initial shipment of iPhone X's numbering less than 50,000 units, it is still going to take a while before the supply is anywhere near demand. It looks like Kuo's analysis was, as usual, largely correct, it probably will be 2018 before the supply stream has become completely unclogged and iPhone X's are readily available.
Apple has now commented on the matter, stating that the iPhone X will be in Apple stores, but adds that customers should arrive early as there will not be enough stock for everyone. In other words, a return to Apple launches of old with everyone queuing outside the stores for days on end.